Anatomy of a seasonal influenza epidemic forecast

A Narrative Review of Influenza: A Seasonal and Pandemic Disease

Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by the influenza A or B virus. It often occurs in outbreaks and epidemics worldwide, mainly during the winter season. Significant numbers of influenza virus particles are present in the respiratory secretions of infected persons, so infection can be transmitted by sneezing and coughing via large particle droplets. The mean duration of influenza v...

S4CAST seasonal forecast model

Introduction Conclusions References

Influenza: forecast for a pandemic.

Recently, great speculation about a possible influenza pandemic has been made. However, the facts supporting the possibility of this threat are less discussed. During the last decade highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza virus, including the H5N1 subtype, crossed the species barriers from birds to humans and caused fatal disease. The Z strain of H5N1 subtype is characterized by pathogeni...

Weather Derivatives and Seasonal Forecast

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) seasonal forecast in the temperature process so that conditional means and conditional variances of both the temperature and the CDD (Cooling Degree Day) may be redetermined in accordance with the seasonal forecasting probabilities. Under the Gaussian property of the underlying process, the prices of the CDD options...

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following